美国就业总人口，初请失业金人数和经济周期之间的关系

The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle

by Jill Mislinski

Every week we post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes a fairly simplistic view of the latest number, and the market often reacts, for a few minutes or a few hours, to the initial estimate, which is always revised the following week.

每星期我们都会在美国劳工统计局发布了新的初请失业金人数报告后不久对最新的失业申报情况进行更新，我们关注的重点是初请失业金人数的4周移动平均值而不是波动率更高的单周数据。但是财经媒体通常过于简单化地看待最新公布的单周数据的变动情况，金融市场经常会在几分钟或几个小时的时间里对数据的初值做出反应，而这个初值通常会在随后一周里被修正。

One of our featured charts in the update shows the four-week moving average from the inception of this series in January 1967.

下面这张图显示的是本数据系列自1967年1月份开始发布以来的4周移动平均值走势。

The chart, above, however, gives a rather distorted view of Initial Claims. Why? Because it's based on a raw, albeit seasonally adjusted number that doesn't take into account the substantial growth in the Civilian Labor Force since January 1967, as illustrated here:

但是上图显示的初请失业金人数情况看起来却相当失真。原因何在？因为这张图显示的是最原始的数据，该数据虽然经过了季节性调整，但却并没有考虑到1967年1月份以来美国就业人数的大规模变动情况，见下图所示：

The Civilian Labor Force in the chart above has more than doubled from 76.5 Million in January 1967 to 163.2 Million today. The curve of the line, which the regression helps us visually quantify, largely reflects the employment demographics of the baby boom generation, those born between 1946 and 1964. In 1967 they were starting to turn 21. The oldest are now eligible for full retirement benefits. Another factor is the curve is the rising participation of women in the labor force (see this commentary).

上图显示，美国就业大军的总人数从1967年1月份的7650万升至如今的1.632亿。那条灰色的一元线性回归线可帮助我们更直观地量化并在很大程度上反应出在1946至1964年期间出生的“婴儿潮”一代的就业变动状况，在1967年的时候这些“婴儿潮”一代开始陆陆续续进入21岁了，如今“婴儿潮”一代中年龄最大的那一批人已经可以享受全额退休待遇了。与这条一元线性回归线有关的另一个因素是美国就业总人口中妇女的劳动参与率在上升。

For a better understanding of the weekly Initial Claims data, let's view the numbers as a ratio of the Civilian Labor Force.

为了更好地理解每周初请失业金人数这个数据，下面来看一下该数据与美国就业总人口的比例关系。

The latest ratio of 0.14% means that out of 10,000 workers, fourteen made an initial application for unemployment insurance payments in the latest data. The latest ratio of 0.137% to three decimal points is just above its all-time low (of 0.128%).

每周初请失业金人数与美国就业总人口的比例的当前最新值为0.14%，意味着在每10,000个劳动者中有14个人首次申请领取失业保险金。如果将这个数据精确到三位数则为0.137%，则刚好高于0.128%的历史最低值。

What about Continued Claims? Here is the ratio to the Civilian Labor Force.

至于持续申请失业金的人数？以下为持续申请失业金的人数与就业总人口的比例。

With this indicator, we're just above a historic low (1.01%) with a reading of 1.03%. Approximately one hundred and three persons per 10,000 are receiving continuing unemployment insurance benefits.

持续申请失业金的人数与就业总人口的比例当前最新的指标值为1.03%，刚刚比1.01%的历史最低值高一点，相当于每10,000个劳动者中大约有103个人在继续享受失业救济。

Unemployment Claims as a Recession Indicator

初请失业金人数是预测美国经济是否会衰退的风向标

A particularly interesting feature of this Unemployment Claims ratio series is its effectiveness in the past as a leading indicator for recession starts and a virtually dead-on coincident indicator for recession ends. In both of the ratio charts above, we've highlighted the value at the month a recession starts. In every instance, the trough in claims preceded the recession start by a few too many months, but the claims peaks were nearly identical with recession ends. Here is a table showing the actual numbers.

特别有意思的一点是，这个初请失业金人数数据在以往是个非常有效地预测经济衰退是否会到来的先行指标，并且是在经济衰退结束时几乎肯定会同步出现改善。在上面这两张初请失业金的人数和续请失业金的人数与就业总人口的比率图里，我们重点标出了以往每次经济衰退（图中灰色竖条表示的是经济衰退期间）发生当月的比率值（见图中红点）。而在每次经济衰退发生之前比率值的最低点都会提前好几个月出现，而比率值的高点几乎每次都会在经济衰退结束的时点同步出现，下表显示的是领先或滞后的具体月份数。

The least lead time from a claims trough to a recession start was three months. That was for the second half of the double-dip that began in July 1981. As we've discussed elsewhere, this was basically a Fed engineered recession to break the back of inflation. The Effective Fed Funds Rate hit its historic monthly average high of 19.1% in June of 1981 and its all-time daily high of 22.4% on July 22, the month the NBER subsequently identified as the recession start.

初请失业金人数和续请失业金人数与就业总人口的比率值低点领先于经济衰退起点的时间间隔最短为3个月，这个最低点出现在1981年4月，随后在1981年7月份进入了当时双底式衰退的下半场。正如我们在别的文章中所谈到的，那次实际上是一次联储政策主导下的经济衰退以解决当时极为严重的通货膨胀问题。联邦基金利率的实际水平在1981年6月份触及历史上月度均值的最高水平19.1%，并在7月22日创下单日最高记录22.4%，随后美国国家经济研究局NBER确认从当月开始美国经济进入衰退状态。

NBER，全称是National Bureau of Economic Research，美国国家经济研究局。是美国较权威的经济研究机构，1920年成立，是一个私人的、非盈利、无党派分歧的研究机构，决心致力于在经济政策制定者、商业专家和学术界之间传播经济研究成果，以更好地了解经济的运行机制。

地址：1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138

电话: 617-868-3900
email: info@nber.org

The Business Cycle and Current Recession Risk

经济周期和当前的经济衰退风险

What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and our current recession risk? At present, the ratio for Continued Claims has been trending down. Excluding the 1981 recession, the Initial Claims trough lead time for a recession has ranged from 7 to 22 months with an average of 12 months if we include the 1981 recession and 14 months if we exclude it. Admittedly, the last recession is an extreme example, but the Initial Claims trough preceded its December 2007 onset by a whopping 22 months.

当前正处于经济周期的哪个阶段以及当前的经济衰退风险有多高？申请失业人数与就业总人口的比率对此是怎么说的？当前，续请失业金人数与就业总人口的比率总体上是在下行。如果排除1981年经济衰退期间的情况，每次经济衰退开始前初请失业金人数与就业总人口的比率的最低点领先于经济衰退的月份数从7个月至22个月不等；如果算上1981年经济衰退期间，那么领先月份的均值为12个月；如果不算1981年经济衰退期间，领先月份的均值则为14个月。有一点无可否认，尽管最近一次的2008年经济衰退是个极端的案例，但在当时初请失业金人数与就业总人口的比率出现的低点领先于2007年12月份经济衰退初现的月份数是令人吃惊的22个月。