Based on our economic health index, we project that India's real growth rate over the next 10 years will be in the vicinity of 7.2% to 9.2%. This growth rate is well above the global average, ranked 1 out of 20 major economies, and 1 out of 9 emerging countries. As a reminder, this estimate (and this writing) is based on our computergenerated analysis of the statistics detailed in Part 1, and doesn't account for exogenous shocks (like commodity or political shocks, or wars). In India’s case, our growth estimate comes from combining our expectation of a 5.9% growth rate per worker, which is well above the global average, and a labor force growth rate of 1.3% which will boost growth. The growth in output per worker is driven significantly by productivity and indebtedness. Over the long term, productivity matters most, while swings in indebtedness tend to be an important driver in the short term. Given that we are looking at a 10-year time frame, we weigh our productivity measures about twothirds and our indebtedness measure about one-third (though there is no precision here). Over the next 10 years, we expect India’s productivity to be much better than most major countries (implying a growth rate of 9.3% on its own), and indebtedness conditions to be better than other countries (implying a growth rate of 5.1% on its own). As shown below, India’s biggest relative strengths are the value its workers provide relative to education levels and its levels of investment, and its biggest relative problems are its level of bureaucracy (though compared to other countries it doesn't rate especially poorly on this measure).

根据我们的经济健康指数，我们预计印度未来10年的实际增长率将在7.2％至9.2％附近。这一增长率远高于全球平均水平，在20个主要经济体中排名第1，在9个新兴国家中排名第1。提醒一下，这个估计（以及本文）基于我们对第1部分详述的统计数据的计算机生成分析，并未考虑外部冲击（如商品或政治冲击或战争）。在印度的情况下，我们的增长预测来自于我们对每个工人增长率5.9％的预期，远高于全球平均水平，以及1.3％的劳动力增长率，这将促进增长。人均产出的增长主要受生产力和债务的驱动。从长远来看，生产力最重要，而负债的波动往往是短期内的重要推动因素。鉴于我们正在考虑10年的时间框架，我们将生产率指标权衡为三分之二，我们的负债措施约为三分之一（尽管这里没有精确度）。在接下来的10年里，我们预计印度的生产力将比大多数主要国家好得多（这意味着其自身的增长率为9.3％），而且债务状况要好于其他国家（这意味着其增长率为5.1％）拥有）。如下图所示，印度最大的相对优势是其工人提供的相对于教育水平和投资水平的价值，其最大的相对问题是其官僚程度（尽管与其他国家相比，它对这一措施的评价不是特别差））。

The various gauges and weights are shown below. The individual indicators that are behind them are explained in Part 1 of this study, and listed in the appendix of this section. Please review this table to understand our comments.

各种规格和比重如下所示。其背后的各个指标在本研究的第1部分中进行了解释，并列在本节的附录中。请查看此表以了解我们的意见。

More Detail

更多的细节

As mentioned, the descriptions below are based on influences that are conveyed in gauges that are made up of a composite of indicators, shown both in Part 1 and in the appendix. So, if you want to see why we are saying what we are saying, you can trace them through by looking at those statistics.

如上所述，下面的描述是基于在由第1部分和附录中所示的指示器组合构成的仪表中传达的影响。所以，如果你想看看为什么我们说的是我们说的话，你可以通过查看这些统计数据来追踪它们。

Productivity

生产力

I. Value: What You Pay Versus What You Get

价值：你得到的VS你所失去的

A country's productivity and competitiveness are mostly a function of the relative value it offers, especially for its labor. As shorthand for this, we refer to our gauge of this relative value as "what you pay versus what you get"; it reflects a) the cost and value of employees and b) the levels of investment. Countries that have well-educated workers who are relatively inexpensive and that have higher investment rates grow faster than those that don't.

一个国家的生产力和竞争力主要取决于它所提供的相对价值，特别是其劳动力。作为这方面的简写，我们将这种相对价值的衡量标准称为“你付出什么与得到什么”;它反映了a）员工的成本和价值以及b）投资水平。拥有受过良好教育的工人，相对便宜且投资率较高的国家比没有受过良好教育的工人增长得快。

India offers much better than average value, ranked 1 among the countries we measure. Its workers are very inexpensive, even taking into consideration India's low levels of education and very poor quality of education.

印度提供的价格远高于平均价值，在我们衡量的国家中排名第一。它的工人非常便宜，甚至考虑到印度的教育水平低和教育质量很差。

Further, people in India work very hard relative to the cost of their labor—the average male of working age works 36 hours per week (2 out of 20 countries), and the demographics of the workforce are very favorable.

此外，印度人相对于他们的劳动成本非常努力 - 平均每周工作年龄的男性每周工作36小时（20个国家中的2个），劳动力的人口统计数据非常有利。

Levels of saving and investing are high given India's very low per capita income levels, with investment at about 14% of GDP (15 out of 20 countries).

鉴于印度的人均收入水平非常低，储蓄和投资水平很高，投资约占GDP的14％（20个国家中的15个）。

II. Culture

文化

Just looking solely at the relative value of a country's workers misses the role that the culture plays in determining how much a country will grow. As I've discussed, culture influences the decisions people make about factors like savings rates or how many hours they work each week, which we measure in the previously shown indicators, but culture can also influence work attitudes, levels of efficiency, reliability, and other such influences on whether countries underperform or outperform.

仅仅关注一个国家工人的相对价值就会忽略文化在决定一个国家增长多少方面所起的作用。正如我所讨论的，文化会影响人们对储蓄率或每周工作时间等因素的决策，我们在之前显示的指标中衡量，但文化也可以影响工作态度，效率水平，可靠性和对国家是否表现不佳或表现优异的其他影响。

India's culture looks to be a significant support to growth in coming years, ranked 2 out of 20 countries in this culture gauge. Note that our culture measures compare India to countries of similar levels of economic development. Starting with self-sufficiency, India is rated pretty well on this measure, weighing that its workers have a somewhat strong work ethic, its level of government support is neutral (with government outlays at 27% of GDP), and its labor markets are very flexible. India also seems to value achieving a bit more than savoring—again, its work ethic is somewhat strong, and surveys suggest that its people value accomplishment and achievement. Furthermore, innovation and commercialism are very strong in India relative to income.

印度的文化看起来是未来几年增长的重要支撑，在这个文化指标的20个国家中排名第2。请注意，我们的文化措施将印度与经济发展水平相似的国家进行了比较。从自给自足开始，印度在这一标准上得到了很好的评价，称其工人的职业道德有点强，政府支持水平中立（政府支出占GDP的27％），劳动力市场非常紧张。灵活。印度似乎也很重视品味，而不是品味 - 它的职业道德有点强，调查显示其人民重视成就和成就。此外，相对于收入而言，印度的创新和商业主义非常强大。

We see the country investing very heavily in research and innovation, and its outputs from innovation, including inventions and earnings, are very high. Finally, relative to its income, India has somewhat high bureaucracy and red tape, very low corruption, and somewhat strong rule of law, according to the international measures we are using.

我们看到该国在研究和创新方面投入了大量资金，其创新产出（包括发明和收益）非常高。最后，根据我们正在使用的国际措施，相对于其收入，印度的官僚主义和繁文缛节有点高，腐败程度极低，法治也有些强大。

Indebtedness

负债

Think of debt growth that is faster than income growth as being like air in a scuba bottle—there is a limited amount of it that you can use to get an extra boost, but you can't live on it forever. When you are taking it out, you can spend more than

is sustainable, but when debts can no longer be raised relative to incomes and the time for paying back comes, the process works in reverse. You can get a picture of where countries stand in the long-term debt cycle and the likelihood of debt being a support or detriment to future growth by assessing the past reliance on debt to support incomes and the attractiveness of taking on new debt.

想想债务增长比收入增长更快，就像潜水瓶中的空气一样 - 你可以用它来获得额外的提升，但是你不能永远活在它身上。当你把它拿出来时，你可以花更多的钱

是可持续的，但是当债务不再相对于收入提高而且还款的时间到来时，这个过程就会相反。通过评估过去对债务的依赖来支持收入和承担新债务的吸引力，您可以了解各国在长期债务周期中的位置以及债务对未来增长的支持或损害的可能性。

The other major piece of our economic health index looks at the likelihood of debt being a support or detriment to future growth. India's indebtedness position is better than other countries, ranked 1 out of the 20 countries we look at. The country has a bit of room to lever up in the future, with a total debt burden of around 133% of GDP, compared to the global average of 200-250%. In the past few years, its growth was neither supported nor depressed by credit creation, which is neutral for growth going forward. Lastly, the stance of monetary policy is

generally a bit stimulative.

我们经济健康指数的另一个主要部分是债务是否支持或损害未来增长的可能性。印度的债务状况优于其他国家，在我们看到的20个国家中排名第一。该国在未来有一定的增长空间，总债务负担约为GDP的133％，而全球平均水平为200-250％。在过去几年中，信贷创造既没有支持也没有抑制增长，这对未来的增长是中性的。最后，货币政策的立场是偏向刺激经济。

China's Future Growth

中国未来的经济增长

Based on our economic health index, we project that China's real growth rate over the next 10 years will be in the vicinity of 4.0% to 4.2%. This growth rate is well above the global average, ranked 2 out of 20 major economies, and 2 out of 9 emerging countries. As a reminder, this estimate (and this writing) is based on our computergenerated analysis of the statistics detailed in Part 1, and doesn't account for exogenous shocks (like commodity or political shocks, or wars). In China’s case, our growth estimate comes from combining our expectation of a 4.4% growth rate per worker, which is well above the global average, and a labor force growth rate of -0.2%，which will moderately weigh on growth. The growth in output per worker is driven significantly by productivity and indebtedness. Over the long term, productivity matters most, while swings in indebtedness tend to be an important driver in the short term. Given that we are looking at a 10-year time frame, we weigh our productivity measures about two-thirds and our indebtedness measure about one-third (though there is no precision here).

根据我们的经济健康指数，我们预计中国未来10年的实际增长率将在4.0％至4.2％附近。这一增长率远高于全球平均水平，在20个主要经济体中排名第2，在9个新兴国家中排名第2。提醒一下，这个估计（以及本文）基于我们对第1部分详述的统计数据的计算机生成分析，并未考虑外部冲击（如商品或政治冲击或战争）。在中国的情况下，我们的增长预测来自于我们对每个工人4.4％的增长率的预期，远高于全球平均水平，以及-0.2％的劳动力增长率，这将对增长产生适度的影响。人均产出的增长主要受生产力和债务的驱动。从长远来看，生产力最重要，而负债的波动往往是短期内的重要推动因素。鉴于我们正在考虑10年的时间框架，我们将生产率指标的权重约为三分之二，而我们的债务指标约为三分之一（尽管这里没有精确度）。

Over the next 10 years, we expect China’s productivity to be much better than most major countries (implying a growth rate of 5.8% on its own), and indebtedness conditions to be slightly worse than other countries (implying a growth rate of 1.2% on its own). As shown below, China’s biggest relative strengths are its levels of investment and the value its workers provide relative to education levels, and its biggest relative problems are its debt and debt service levels and its reliance on credit flows for growth. The various gauges and weights are shown below.

在未来10年，我们预计中国的生产力将比大多数主要国家好得多（意味着自身增长率为5.8％），债务状况略差于其他国家（意味着增长率为1.2％）它自己的）。如下图所示，中国最大的相对优势是其投资水平和工人提供的相对于教育水平的价值，其最大的相关问题是其债务和偿债水平以及对信贷流动增长的依赖。各种规格和重量如下所示。

The individual indicators that are behind them are explained in Part 1 of this study, and listed in the appendix of this section. Please review this table to understand our comments.

其背后的各个指标在本研究的第1部分中进行了解释，并列在本节的附录中。请查看此表以了解我们的意见。

More Detail

细节

Productivity

生产力

I. Value: What You Pay Versus What You Get

价值分析：你得到的VS你所失去的

一个国家的生产力和竞争力主要取决于它所提供的相对价值，特别是其劳动力。作为这方面的简写，我们将这种相对价值的衡量标准称为“你付出什么与得到什么”;它反映了a）员工的成本和价值以及b）投资水平。拥有受过良好教育的工人，相对便宜且投资率较高的国家比没有受过良好教育的工人增长得快。

China offers much better than average value, ranked 2 among the countries we measure. Its workers are somewhat inexpensive, even taking into consideration China's low levels of education and poor quality of education. Further, people in China work an average amount relative to the cost of their labor—the average male of working age works 35 hours per week (3 out of 20 countries), and the demographics of the workforce are unfavorable. Levels of saving and investing are high given China's low per capita income levels, with investment at about 30% of GDP (1 out of 20 countries).

中国提供的好于平均价值，在我们衡量的国家中排名第二。它的工人有点便宜，甚至考虑到中国教育水平低，教育质量差。此外，中国人的平均工作量相对于他们的劳动力成本 - 平均每周工作年龄的男性每周工作35小时（20个国家中的3个），劳动力的人口统计数据是不利的。鉴于中国人均收入水平较低，储蓄和投资水平较高，投资约占GDP的30％（20个国家中的1个）。

II. Culture

文化

Just looking solely at the relative value of a country's workers misses the role that the culture plays in determining how much a country will grow. As I've discussed, culture influences the decisions people make about factors like savings rates or how many hours they work each week, which we measure in the previously shown indicators, but culture can also influence work attitudes, levels of efficiency, reliability, and other such influences on whether countries underperform or outperform.

China's culture looks to be a support to growth in coming years, ranked 4 out of 20 countries in this culture gauge. Note that our culture measures compare China to countries of similar levels of economic development. Starting with self-sufficiency, China is rated pretty well on this measure, weighing that its workers have a roughly average work ethic, its level of government support is low (with government outlays at 29% of GDP), and its labor markets are very flexible. China also seems to value savoring about the same as it values achieving—again, its work ethic is roughly average, and surveys suggest that its people value accomplishment and achievement.

中国的文化看起来是对未来几年增长的支持，在这个文化指标的20个国家中排名第4。请注意，我们的文化措施将中国与经济发展水平相似的国家进行比较。从自给自足开始，中国在这一标准上得到了很好的评价，称其工人的职业道德大致平均，政府支持水平较低（政府支出占GDP的29％），劳动力市场非常紧张灵活。中国似乎也重视品味，因为它重视实现价值 - 再次，其职业道德大致是平均水平，调查显示其人民重视成就和成就。

Furthermore, innovation and commercialism are very strong in China relative to income. We see the country investing very heavily in research and innovation, and its outputs from innovation, including inventions and earnings, are about average. Finally, relative to its income, China has somewhat low bureaucracy and red tape, very low corruption, and very strong rule of law, according to the international measures we are using.

此外，与收入相比，中国的创新和商业主义非常强大。我们看到该国在研究和创新方面投入了大量资金，其创新产出（包括发明和收益）大致相当于平均水平。最后，根据我们正在使用的国际措施，相对于其收入，中国的官僚主义和繁文缛节有点低，腐败程度很低，法治也很强大。

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