Below-investment-grade fixed-income securities continue to post a sizable year-to-date performance lead over the rest of the major slices of the US bond market, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. The strong gain for junk bonds is all the more striking when measured against the mixed results for the rest of the field.

以各类固定收益交易所交易基金的回报情况为业绩比较基准，2019年年初至今，评级低于投资级的垃圾债以可观的回报率持续领先美国其他各类固定收益品种。与其他固定收益市场回报表现参差不齐的情况相比，垃圾债市场的强劲走势格外引人注目。
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK) is the top performer for US bond ETFs year to date through yesterday’s close (Jan. 23) via a 4.0% gain. The second-strongest return for US bond funds so far in 2019 is also a junk-bond portfolio – a fund with a short-term focus on maturities. The iShares 0-5 Year High Yield Corp Bond (SHYG) is ahead by roughly 3.0%.

截止到1月23日，代码为JNK的SPDR彭博巴克莱高收益债交易所交易基金以4.0%的回报率成为美国各固定收益类交易所交易基金中的头号大赢家；亚军也是一只跟踪垃圾债的交易所交易基金，所跟踪的垃圾债久期稍短一些，这只代码为SHYG的iShares0-5年期高收益债交易所交易基金的回报率也以约3.0%的回报率位居前列。

见下图，蓝线为JNK，黑线为SHYG

图表信息来源：https://www.investing.com/

SPDR彭博巴克莱高收益债交易所交易基金JNK的久期为3.85年

iShares0-5年期高收益债交易所交易基金SHYG的久期为2.21年

The year-to-date losses at the moment are found in Treasuries funds with various maturities. The deepest shade of red: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT), which is down by about 1.0% in 2019 through yesterday’s close.

有赢就有输，那么输家都有谁？是复制各期限美国国债走势的交易所基金，其中业绩最差的是跟踪20年期以上美国国债回报率的TLT，年初至今净值下跌了约1%。

见下图，蓝线为JNK，黑线为SHYG，红线为TLT

图表信息来源：https://www.investing.com/

Note that there’s a slightly positive trend for the US bond market generally so far this year, based on a broad measure of the US investment-grade fixed income securities: Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) is up 0.2% year to date.

值得注意的是，年初以来美国债券市场总体上略呈正回报，跟踪美国全体投资级债券市场回报表现的Vanguard美国全债基金BND年初至今的回报率为0.2%。

The strong 2019 rebound in junk bonds to date follows a sharp correction for this market late last year. The revival isn’t surprising, explains an analyst:

经历了2018年底的大幅下挫后，2019年以来垃圾债市场强劲反弹，这一“起死回生”并非不可思议，一位分析师是这样解释的：

“History indicates that high yield typically bounces back from negative return years, so we can understand why many strategists are increasing their 2019 forecasts,” advises Michael Anderson, head of US credit strategies at Citigroup, in a research note. He adds that “December’s swoon is indicative of an increasingly fragile market. For most of 2018, investors wondered what could derail high yield. Now we see how quickly things can turn.”

“历史经验证明高收益债通常会在负回报的年份后出现反弹，因此不难理解为什么有很多策略分析师上调了2019年高收益债的回报预期，”花旗银行美国信用交易策略主管Michael Anderson在一份研报中提出了以上观点，他还补充道，“2018年12月份的动荡行情说明高收益债市场的脆弱程度在加深。在2018年的大部分时间里，投资者一直想知道会有什么因素引爆高收益债市场的颓势，如今我们已经见到事态是如何遽变的。”

One theory for why junk bonds have popped this year: the sharp slide in prices in late-2018 lifted the market’s yield by a substantial degree (bond yields and prices move in opposite directions). Notably, the spread for junk over Treasury rates (via ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II Option-Adjusted Spread) shot up to 5.44 percentage points on Jan. 3 – a dramatic surge from the previous tough of 3.16 a few months earlier on Oct. 3.

关于今年以来垃圾债行情的迅速转强，有这样一个解读：2018年末市场的重挫使垃圾债市场的整体收益率水平得到大幅提升，垃圾债的收益率高出同期限美国国债收益率的利差冲高至2019年1月3日的5.44%，与数月前的10月3日3.16%的水平相比出现了大幅飙升。

洲际交易所美国银行美林经期权调整后美国高收益债的信用利差指数

图表信息来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行网站https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2

The upward revision in junk’s yield premium was apparently too good to pass over, prompting the crowd to dive in. But the 5.44 spread at the start of the new year has since slumped to 4.39 as of yesterday’s close, courtesy of the rally in price. Perhaps, then, it’s no surprise that this year’s bullish spike in SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK) has run out of gas in recent days.

垃圾债信用利差的抬升幅度是如此之大，以至于让人欲罢不能，引来投资者蜂拥而入。但刚开年时5.44%的信用利差水平到1月23日已回落至4.39%，因垃圾债的价格大幅上升。不出所料的话，SPDR彭博巴克莱高收益债交易所交易基金JNK今年以来的上涨动能也许在最近几日内就将耗尽。

The burning question for junk bond investors now: What catalyst might keep the party going? Delaying Fed rate hikes due to the blowback from the partial government shutdown is a possibility, but that factor comes with baggage for the macro trend and, by extension, high-yield bonds.

美国垃圾债的投资者当前亟待找到答案的问题是：有什么因素能让垃圾债市场当前的盛宴维持下去？联储有可能会鉴于部分美国政府机构关门的潜在后果而做出暂停加息的决策，但政府关门拖累经济这个因素同样会给宏观经济走势乃至高收益债市场的表现带来负面影响。